Scientists have figured out the worst that could happen if the mammoth chuck of continental ice at the bottom of the world—the West Antarctic Ice Sheet—continues melting. By 2100, ice sheet melt would raise sea levels by 7.9 inches, enough to pose a risk to low-lying nations, according to a published today in .
By 2200, ice sheet melt would raise sea levels by 1.6 feet.
Helping computer models predict future impacts
The resulting model had high resolution and was large scale. It captured the minute physics of how an ice sheet responds in a warming world.
“Much like a higher-resolution digital camera transforms a blur into a flock of birds, higher resolution in a computer model often helps to capture details of the physics involved which may be crucial to the broad picture,” said Martin.
The model showed that the key Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers would retreat by hundreds of miles, as would a number of others if nations continue emitting carbon at present-day rates.
The ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea embayment were the most vulnerable to melting by 2100 because of the typography under the ocean.
The Thwaites Glacier, which feeds into the embayment, may retreat rapidly at some point in the future. Depending on when this begins, it could triple the rate of global sea-level rise, the study found.
Understanding the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is key to helping people understand how to respond to, adapt to and prepare for a warming world, Martin said.
“There is wide consensus in the glaciology community that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly vulnerable to collapse,” he said.
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