Hurricane Joaquin Intensifies but U.S. Landfall Not Certain

By Neil Hartnell

NASSAU, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Hurricane Joaquin strengthened as it battered the Bahamas with torrential rains, storm surges and heavy winds on Thursday and U.S. officials raced to prepare for possible landfall early next week, three years after Superstorm Sandy devastated New York and New Jersey.

Joaquin, the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season, intensified into a major Category 4 storm on a scale of 1 to 5, with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles (209 km) per hour, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

U.S. energy installations in the Gulf of Mexico were unaffected by the storm.

While forecasts of the storm's trajectory were still uncertain, Joaquin was the first tropical cyclone to potentially threaten the U.S. northeast since Sandy.

Several computer models showed Joaquin approaching the coast of the Carolinas by the weekend, then losing strength as it moves offshore past Delaware and New Jersey early next week to head toward Long Island and New England.

One often reliable European model indicated the storm may cut a path out to sea, but the governors of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey - where Sandy killed more than 120 people and caused some $70 billion in property damage in October 2012 - warned residents to prepare for a possible severe storm.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie declared a state of emergency on Thursday, adding he would consider ordering evacuations. The governors of Virginia and North Carolina have also declared states of emergency.

"We're hoping for the best, but hope is not preparation nor is it a plan," North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory said in a statement on Thursday.

"I've ordered all state agencies to begin preparation for the severe weather, particularly flooding, that is going hit just about every corner of the state during the next few days."

One person died after several cars were submerged in flash floods in South Carolina, local media reported on Thursday.

Some additional strengthening of Joaquin was possible over the next day, as it approaches parts of the central and northwest Bahamas, the Miami-based NHC said.

The storm's eye was passing over uninhabited Samana Cay Thursday, moving southwest at 6 mph (9 kph) and threatening resorts on the smaller islands of San Salvador, Exuma and Cat Island.

Joaquin's hurricane-force winds were forecast to miss the larger Bahamas islands and the main cities and cruise ship ports of Freeport and Nassau.

Storm surges will push water as high as 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas, the NHC said, with up to 20 inches (51 cm) of rain possible in some areas.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Joaquin's projected path http://reut.rs/1LPAAhG

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Residents on the Bahamas islands closest to Joaquin's path, which include Rum Cay, Long Island, Exuma and Eleuthera, had stocked up on food and drink, and were boarding up homes and businesses.

In North Carolina's vulnerable Outer Banks, a strip of barrier islands linked by road, some vacationers decided to pack up early and leave before the weekend.

"Everybody is taking this one a little more seriously because of the rain we have had," said Hyde County commissioner John Fletcher on Ocracoke Island, noting heavy rain had saturated the area in recent days.

U.S. energy companies said they had learned from Sandy and used the last three years to gird their oil, natural gas and power infrastructure to better withstand another storm.

Consolidated Edison Inc, which supplies power, gas and steam to more than three million customers in the New York City area, said it was three years into a four-year $2 billion plan to strengthen its infrastructure after Sandy shut down the Big Apple.

Sandy, the worst storm in Con Edison's history, left about a million customers without power, with outages lasting a couple of weeks in the hardest hit areas. Some customers of other utilities were without power for much longer.

The U.S. East Coast has nine refineries with an operable capacity of about 1.3 million barrels per day, according to government data. (Reporting by David Adams in Miami, Gene Cherry in Hatteras Island, N.C. and Daniel Bases and Scott DiSavino in New York; Writing by Tom Brown; Editing by Bernadette BaumJames Dalgleish)

see also:

Tar Sands Mining Moves to Utah

The Canadian tar sands, or oil sands, are much more carbon-laden than most other fossil fuels produced in North America, and their possible outsized impact on the climate is one of the primary reasons the proposed Pipeline, which would carry tar sands oil to Texas refineries, is so controversial.

Despite long odds as oil prices continue their dip below $50 per barrel, commercial  mining is coming for the first time to the U.S., where an Alberta company called  has begun producing tar sands from a mine in eastern Utah.

Up to 76 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil may be locked up in deposits of thick clay-like and hydrocarbon-laced beneath the state’s redrock canyon country, according to University of Utah estimates. (The Canadian oil industry refers to the sticky bitumen as “,” but in the U.S., the federal government  “,” a name the Canadian industry  because it is used by its critics.)

Oil price volatility makes tar sands development in Utah—the  in the U.S. with large deposits of it—uncertain. But if successful, it will be a historic moment in the history of oil and gas production in the U.S.

“There have been numerous attempts to develop the oil sands resource in Uintah County, Utah, over the past eight decades,” , a research associate professor for the Institute for Clean and Secure Energy at the University of Utah, said. “While the oil sands have been exploited commercially for use as a paving material, no company has ever produced bitumen at a commercial scale.”

If the industry does gain a foothold in the U.S., the climate implications could be significant.

In evaluating the climate impacts of Keystone XL, the U.S. State Department concluded that Canadian tar sands production is 17 percent more carbon intensive than production of an average barrel of oil. In June, a group of 100 scientists called for  on tar sands development, saying it is incompatible with stabilizing the climate and meeting greenhouse gas reductions targets.

But U.S. Oil Sands, which did not respond to requests for comment, is moving ahead with production, even as tar sands producers in Canada  as crude oil prices fall.

U.S. Oil Sands, which has acquired the rights to produce tar sands at mines on 50 square miles of land between Salt Lake City and Moab, Utah, plans to produce 2,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of the year, according to  the company filed with Canadian .

Click to enlarge.

“This is a breakthrough in technology,” U.S. Oil Sands CEO  told the . “If we’re able to demonstrate to the investment world that this is possible, there are many, many places where this could be done.”

The economic winds are blowing hard against the company, however.

Spinti’s 2013 economic assessment for Utah tar sands development shows that any mine producing 50,000 barrels per day would be unprofitable even when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are above $100 per barrel. On Thursday, the WTI price was .  

“I expect that all oil sands operations, both in the U.S. and Canada, will find the economic climate to be very difficult in the near term,” Spinti said.

Other challenges facing future tar sands development in Utah include climate policy, environmental regulations, complications with land ownership and the remoteness of some of the tar sands deposits, she said.

A tar sands seep at a Utah tar sands mine.

“Some of the federal lands containing oil sands resources are located in national parks, national monuments, wilderness and wilderness study areas, so those areas would not be developable,” Spinti said. “However, the state has shown significant interest in developing the oil sands resources on its lands and there are private landowners interested in development as well.”

From a climate perspective, any kind of tar sands development in the U.S. would present a threat to the globe’s ability to meet climate goals, said , a professor of resources and environmental policy at University College London.

Ekins published  in the journal Nature in January showing that most Canadian tar sands would have to be left in the ground in order for the globe to cost-effectively keep global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

“The world is awash with fossil fuels so if we are to get a handle on climate change, any new production of hydrocarbons will have to be balanced by reduced production elsewhere,” Ekins said. “Those who wish to produce U.S. oil sands should therefore be asked which fossil fuel production elsewhere they will substitute for.”

Climate Central. The article was

see also:

As Joaquin Looms, Eastern U.S. States Start to Batten Down

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, Oct 1 (Reuters) - As Joaquin strengthened into a major Category 4 hurricane near the Bahamas on Thursday, states along the U.S. East Coast hustled to activate emergency plans developed after Superstorm Sandy slammed the region in 2012, aiming to blunt the storm's potential impact.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, whose state took a direct hit from Sandy, declared a state of emergency, warning residents to "be prepared but don't panic."

The governor of North Carolina made a similar announcement, a day after Virginia declared a state of emergency.

"The weather reports are not encouraging," Christie told a press conference, adding he would consider ordering evacuations if necessary. Forecasters are still uncertain of the likely track of the hurricane and where it might make landfall.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters the Federal Emergency Management Agency had increased staffing at its 24-hour National Watch Center in Washington, D.C. and has teams deployed or preparing to deploy to potentially affected areas.

Sandy was directly responsible for at least 147 deaths in the United States, according to the National Hurricane Center, the second-deadliest hurricane outside of the southern states since Agnes in 1972. More than 650,000 homes were damaged or destroyed when it made landfall on Oct. 29, 2012, devastating parts of New Jersey, New York and other states and leaving roughly 8.5 million customers without power. Damage costs totaled nearly $50 billion.

Christie said he had ordered stockpiling of 20 days of commodities instead of the normal five days and said "slosh modeling" is being done, referring to how deeply a storm surge might penetrate low-lying coastal areas.

Sand dune barriers have been built along many, but not all, beaches in New Jersey, Christie noted.

In Alexandria, Virginia, which sits in a floodplain along the Potomac River, Old Town Ace Hardware by noon on Thursday had sold out of HydraBarrier bags and sand bags, assistant store manager Mark Tantillo said.

The store was also selling a lot of PVC drainpipe extensions to direct runoff away from properties. Customers complained the city was not doing enough to protect homes, Tantillo said.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state's emergency operation center in Albany opened on Thursday and those in New York City and Long Island will be running by the weekend.

"New York is in a much better position today than we have ever been before, but when it comes to Mother Nature, you can never be too prepared," Cuomo said in a statement.

New York's National Guard mobilized 200 troops to help identify problem areas for debris removal and has plans for an additional 3,000 if needed.

In places along New Jersey's shore, damage caused by Sandy has still not been repaired while thousands of homeowners have either been denied full insurance claims or still not been able to access funds to rebuild.

PREPARE, PREPARE, PREPARE

The consistent message from leaders, at state and local level, was to give citizens fair warning to prepare by going to their websites to review supply lists and action plans.

"We're hoping for the best, but hope is not preparation nor is it a plan," North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory said from his already rain-soaked state.

Supplies of water and batteries have started to run low in states expected to be affected first by rain and then possibly Joaquin.

Sea wall gates were closed in Ocean City, Maryland while in Norfolk, Virginia, Mayor Paul Fraim declared a state of emergency after the state did the same. The port city suspended street sweeping and refuse collection because of the storm.

The first punch of bad weather coming in the form of heavy rainfall will first swell lakes and rivers on Thursday and Friday while the full force of Joaquin will move from the Bahamas up toward the coast of the Carolinas at the weekend.

It is the storm surge coming after saturation of ground and swelling of lakes and rivers that has officials concerned.

Weather models now show that Joaquin, the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season, could lose strength as it moves north offshore Delaware and New Jersey early next week and then heads towards Long Island and New England.

The U.S. Navy has ordered its ships in the Hampton Roads, Virginia, area, home to the Atlantic fleet, to be ready to get under way within 48 hours because of Joaquin's approach.

Virginia Beach, Virginia, was already dealing with a separate weather system expected to dump heavy rain on the resort town ahead of the hurricane's possible arrival.

"Crews are cleaning storm drains and securing tables, garbage cans and beach furniture so they don't become flying objects that can hurt people or damage property," Deputy City Manager Dave Hansen said in a statement. (Additional reporting by Ian Simpson and John Clarke in Washington, Katie Reilly in New York, Neil Hartnell in Nassau, Bahamas, Victoria Cavaliere in Los Angeles, Gene Cherry in Hatteras Island, N.C. and Colleen Jenkins in Winston-Salem, N.C.; Editing by Frank McGurty and James Dalgleish)

see also:

Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect More than 65 Million from Carolinas to Mass.

Flooding from  will impact areas from South Carolina to Massachusetts regardless of whether it makes landfall or if the center stays out to sea.

People should not let their guard down due to a shifting track of the hurricane as the risk to lives and property in this complex situation remains high.

A copious amount of moisture will unload very heavy rainfall along parts of the Atlantic Seaboard and the Appalachians into early next week. Strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur and could be very damaging even in the absence of a landfall.

Hurricane Joaquin strengthened rapidly Wednesday into Thursday. Joaquin reached Category 3 status late Wednesday evening and Category 4 status on Thursday afternoon.

JUMP TO:  |  | 

The storm will bring pounding surf, dangerous seas, strong winds, drenching squalls and flash flooding to the central Bahamas. Wind gusts could reach between 75 and 100 mph on some of the islands.

As a result, Joaquin will threaten lives and property in the Bahamas into Friday. Bahamasair has canceled flights for Thursday in parts of the islands.

Joaquin will turn to the north this weekend.

Governors in Virginia, New Jersey and North Carolina have issued a State of Emergency. Other states may follow suit.

Joaquin Track Scenarios

Joaquin has strengthened significantly and continues to hover near the Bahamas on Thursday. This delay has altered the forecast track. Other weather systems impacting Joaquin will be in slightly different positions as a result.

Joaquin will move northward much of this weekend, roughly paralleling the East coast. There is nearly equal possibility the storm will make landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast, the New England coast or veer out to sea.

Due to the potential close proximity of the hurricane to the coast, people from the Carolinas to Massachusetts will need to closely monitor the track and strength of Joaquin for high wind and coastal flooding concerns.

Should Joaquin make landfall, areas near and north of the center would face the worst coastal flooding and strong winds.

If the storm were to make landfall in North Carolina, then it would be on Sunday. If the storm were to turn into Virginia, then it would be on Sunday night. From the Delmarva Peninsula to New Jersey, a landfall would not occur until Monday.

If Joaquin fails to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic and does not escape out to sea, then New England could face the brunt of the storm with deteriorating conditions early next week.

Inland Flooding

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, a large arm of heavy rain from the Atlantic will pivot westward and southward into the weekend.

"The worst flooding will be where it rains the longest or the near the pivot point," Abrams said. "That point is likely to be centered on the Carolinas and Virginia this weekend."

For this reason, people should not focus on only the projected path of Joaquin but also on the projected heavy rainfall hundreds of miles away from the storm's center.

Power outages could occur in addition to flooding as substations get flooded and waterlogged trees topple over.

Through Sunday, the rounds of heavy rain will likely be of shorter duration in the northern mid-Atlantic and could be very brief in New England.

If the area from Maryland to Massachusetts gets long-lasting rain from Joaquin, it is most likely to be early next week. Any inland flooding prior to this time will be limited to urban areas and along small streams.

Farther south from Virginia to the Carolinas, the threat for widespread flash flooding will increase, along with the potential for river flooding.

Rivers that bear close watching for flooding include the New, Tar, Meherrin, Savannah, Shenandoah and James.

Coastal Flooding, Strong Winds

Onshore winds from the east and northeast will push the Atlantic Ocean water toward the coast, causing it to pile up around the barrier islands and bays. This is known as coastal flooding.

Winds, seas and tide levels will continue to build from the Carolinas to Massachusetts through the weekend.

East to northeast gusts may frequent 40 mph well ahead of Joaquin's approach.

The onshore winds alone, in absence of Joaquin reaching the coast, could cause water levels to rise to an average of 2-3 feet above normal tides. These conditions are likely to occur hundreds of miles to the north of the storm's center.

Winds could become strong enough to down trees and power lines and cause minor property damage.

Much more severe winds, waves and coastal flooding would occur if landfall occurs, near and north of the center.

Those in the projected path of the storm should be preparing for the potential rain and wind from Joaquin. Residents in coastal areas should be ready to evacuate if orders are given.

original story here

see also:

How Will Joaquin Compare with Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Isabel?

For the number of people now living along the mid-Atlantic coast that did not experience Sandy or Isabel, this storm could deliver rough weather. In both Sandy and Isabel, gusty winds and flooding occurred well away from the center of the storms.

Questions have been raised about the similarity to  with other recent hurricane strikes in the mid-Atlantic states.

"There is going to be catastrophic flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts, and this is going to disrupt the economy regardless of whether or not Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall," Mike Smith, senior vice president and chief innovation executive of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions said.

No matter how similar the pattern may seem, no two storms are ever exactly alike. The same can be said about the situation developing this weekend along the Atlantic coast with the approach of Joaquin.

A slightly different storm track and the position of other weather systems nearby can translate to huge differences in the weather that occurs at a particular location. The angle and strength of the storm's approach compared to geography and whether or not the storm is strengthening or weaken at landfall can be huge factors in the severity of the weather that occurs.

Joaquin and other weather systems will deliver beach erosion, coastal flooding, inland flooding from heavy rain and stiff winds near the coast, prior to its arrival more than 100 miles away from the point of any landfall.

Exactly where Joaquin comes ashore and how strong it is at landfall will determine the severity of the conditions from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, the New York City area, Cape Cod, and as far inland as Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia.

For the number of people now living along the mid-Atlantic coast that did not experience Sandy or Isabel, this storm could deliver rough weather. In both Sandy and Isabel, gusty winds and flooding occurred well away from the center of the storms.

Superstorm Sandy

Areas from coastal central New Jersey to Long Island and the New York City area, which were located just north of Sandy's landfall, experienced the worst coastal flooding and damaging winds.

High pressure to the north helped to funnel winds in from the east and direct Sandy westward. The shape of the coast of northern New Jersey and Long Island helped to funnel the Atlantic Ocean water.

Sandy was the second costliest hurricane in United States history with damage at $75 billion. More than 200 people lost their lives from the Caribbean through the U.S.

Hurricane Isabel

This path flung the strongest winds over the Chesapeake Bay region. In addition to heavy rain, Atlantic Ocean and bay waters were funneled up the Chesapeake Bay, which resulted in substantial damage. The increasing forward speed of Isabel helped to maintain strong wind gusts well inland.

Isabel resulted in approximately 16 direct fatalities, more than 30 indirect deaths and caused $5.4 billion in damage.

Prepare Now Regardless of Similarities, Differences

While there will be no Tropical Storm Henri arriving ahead of Joaquin, unlike in 2003, there has been heavy rainfall prior to Joaquin this time.

The impact from Joaquin, assuming it makes landfall, could be similar to either Sandy or Isabel or perhaps a blend of the two. There will be impacts. This includes the potential for flooding, downed trees, property damage and power outages. Areas from northeastern North Carolina to New York City, including the Delaware and Chesapeake bay regions will especially monitor Joaquin's track and intensity through this weekend.

In terms of loss of life or injury, be sure to heed warnings and orders as soon as they are issued. Protect property by moving items out of harms way to higher floors or a safe location inland, ahead of the storm. People along the mid-Atlantic coast have several days to prepare for Joaquin, should it make landfall in their vicinity.

original story here

see also:

MacArthur Genius Grant Winner Probes the Pruning Brain

Harvard neuroscientist Beth Stevens wins a MacArthur Fellowship for studies of how microglia cells prune away excess neuronal synapses during brain development and how that necessary function might go awry in neurodegenerative diseases.

By | |

“They’re like the Pac-Man of our brain.”

, talking about , which make up more than half . This week Stevens got a MacArthur Fellowship, the so-called genius grant, for her studies of glia. 

“These cells are incredibly responsive to damage or injury. They can protect our brain by, for example, clearing bacteria or debris in the brain in the case of injury and disease…

“Until about 10 years ago, almost all of the research devoted to these cells was in these contexts. We discovered that there was another role for these cells in the normal healthy brain, in particular during development…

“So a synapse is the junction of communication between two neurons, it’s how neurons talk to each other…we’re actually born with an excess of synaptic connections…and through this normal developmental process called pruning, a large number of these extra synapses get permanently removed or eliminated while others get strengthened and maintained. These microglial cells were in fact engulfing or eating these extra synapses. So these cells are necessary to do this and now of course we’re trying to better understand how it is that they know which synapse to prune and which synapse to leave alone.

“A hallmark of many neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease, is the early loss of synaptic connections or synapses…And what’s most striking about this is, it’s thought that the synapse loss happens years before you see signs of cognitive impairment or pathology.

“That means it’s critical that we understand how these synapses are lost—what makes synapses vulnerable. And that’s a major question my lab is addressing. So recent work in the lab suggests that these normal pruning mechanisms that I’ve just described that are relevant to development get reactivated to drive or mediate this early synapse loss in the adult brain in these diseases. This is very exciting because it allows us to think about the potential that intervening with this pruning pathway could lead to new insight into therapeutics.”

For the complete list of this year’s 24 MacArthur Fellows, including about 10 science and medicine people depending on how you define their activities, go to , for MacArthur Foundation.

—Steve Mirsky

Stevens audio via MacArthur Foundation

Eye of Hurricane Joaquin Passing over Bahamas

The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is passing over Samana Cay in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory on Thursday

October 1, 2015

|

Major Hurricane Joaquin is shown at the far eastern periphery of the GOES West satellite's full disk extent, taken at 8 a.m. (EDT) on October 1, 2015.

(Reuters) - The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is passing over Samana Cay in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory on Thursday.

The hurricane is located about 80 miles (125 km) south southeast of San Salvador, Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour (205 km/h), the agency said.

"A turn towards the northwest and north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion towards the north is expected Friday night and Saturday," the Miami-based weather forecaster said.

(Reporting by Vijaykumar Vedala in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

see also:

How Our View of Mars Has Changed from Lush Oasis to Arid Desert

The dusty-red sphere now called Mars has fascinated stargazers since the dawn of humanity, but Earthlings’ view of the planet has changed drastically over the years. Once thought of as a lush alien world teeming with life, it was later dismissed as an arid, desolate orb. But now, scientists have announced the Red Planet has long, fingerlike strips of seeping, salty, liquid water that just might aid in the search for extraterrestrial life.

The , revealed Monday (Sept. 28) by NASA scientists, once again changes the way people view the bright-red planet, Mars experts told Live Science.

The ancient Greeks and Romans named Mars—a planet barely more than half Earth’s size—after the god of war. But they likely didn’t realize it was another world, with two moons to boot, said Bruce Jakosky, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. []

In the 1600s and 1700s, astronomers tinkered with nascent telescopes and discovered that Mars, like Earth, was a planet and had a roughly 24-hour day-and-night cycle. At this time, people assumed intelligent beings were scampering over the Martian surface, Jakosky said.

Early astronomers had other fanciful, and often mistaken, views of Mars. In 1784, the British astronomer Sir William Herschel wrote that the dark areas on Mars were oceans, and the light areas land. He also speculated the planet was home to aliens, who “probably enjoy a situation similar to our own,” . (He also apparently thought intelligent life was living under the sun’s surface in a cool spot, NASA reported.)

In 1877, Italian astronomer Giovanni Schiaparelli reported seeing grooves or channels on Mars with his telescope. Schiaparelli called these features “canali,” which can mean “natural channels” in Italian. The word was mistakenly translated into “canals” in English, a phrasing that suggested handiwork by living beings. American businessman and astronomer Percival Lowell popularized the idea, and wrote three books about aliens that likely created the canals to survive on a drying planet.

“The canals were an attempt, [Lowell] thought, by intelligent beings to carry water from the poles, where there was water, to the rest of the planet,” said Richard Zurek, chief scientist for the Mars Program Office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

It wasn’t until NASA’s  in the 1960s and 1970s that researchers could confidently prove there were no alien-made canals, Zurek said.

“We almost went to the other extreme, because we saw a hilly, cratered landscape on the first flybys of the planet,” Zurek told Live Science, referring to the Mariner 4 mission. “That suggested it was more like the moon than it was like the Earth.”

Until then, scientists had speculated that Mars had a thick atmosphere that could trap heat and help the planet support life at its distant location from the sun. Mars orbits at about 142 million miles (229 million kilometers) from the sun, compared with Earth’s 93-million-mile (150 million km) leap from the sun. But this wasn’t the case; Mars’ atmosphere is about 100 times thinner than the gas layer surrounding Earth, partially explaining why the Red Planet is such a cold, barren place, Jakosky said.

“All the way up through [NASA’s] Mariner 6 and 7 in 1969, you could think of the  as declining,” Jakosky said. “In 1971, we orbited the Mariner 9 spacecraft, and that changed things. It took global pictures of Mars, and we saw things that looked very Earth-like, including streambeds, river channels and volcanoes. People thought, ‘Well, maybe there’s the potential for liquid water and potential for life after all.’”

In the 1970s, the NASA Viking missions landed on Mars and took samples of the soil to look for signs of microbial life. But they recorded none, Jakosky said. In fact, the Viking mission scientists called Mars “self-sterilizing,” describing how the combination of the sun’s UV rays and the chemical properties of the soil prevented life from forming in those soils, according to NASA. []

Spacecraft in the 1990s renewed the search for water. The Mars Global Surveyor orbited the planet and took high-resolution images of the surface, finding evidence of ancient gullies. Additional watery evidence came from Martian meteorites that have smashed into Earth, carrying telltale signs of liquid flowing through them, Jakosky said.

Since then, robotic missions have scoured the Red Planet for signs of liquid water. Frozen water is locked up in Mars’ roughly mile-thick (1.6 kilometers) ice caps, and enough water vapor resides in the atmosphere to form clouds. Even so, liquid water is more elusive, Zurek said.

Perhaps Mars had water millions or billions of years ago, but that water has since frozen on the surface or been lost to space, Zurek said. (The  is already examining the Martian atmosphere and helping scientists decipher how Mars lost its water, if that did happen, he said.)

The new finding gives researchers a good spot to look for life on Mars, Zurek said. But the newfound salty streaks aren’t like rivers that flow on Earth, he cautioned. []

“If I pour pure liquid water out on the [Martian] surface today, it’s either going to boil way into the atmosphere or it’s going to freeze there on the surface,” he said.

Any water on Mars is likely laden with , which lower water’s freezing point to about minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit), Zurek said.

Moreover, the liquid water—if indeed it is that—only appears during the warm seasons, he said.

“These features grow in a slow, seasonal kind of way, not in a rapid outburst of a flow or a stream,” Zurek said. “But nevertheless, here’s a source of water that could be staying liquid for a time on the planet.”

Extremely salty water isn’t necessarily good for life, but perhaps  can live in those environments, he said.

“We don’t know what the  might have been on the planet, if it ever originated,” Zurek said. “But at least this tells us some places where we could go look for evidence of this. It is briny, and there may not be much of it, but it is a place that we could go look.”

In a way, the discovery isn’t so different from what astronomers were looking for years ago, he said.

“It’s not that ancient canal network delivering massive amounts of water out to the desert, but it’s curious the way that those early themes over 100 years ago are still playing today,” Zurek said.

LiveScience

see also:

Spinning Symmetry with Pinwheels

Why do wind turbines and airplane propellers look the way they do? The secret is in the symmetry. Learn why engineers design them this way with this fun, hands-on activity. Give it a whirl! 

Key conceptsFrictionWind power

Introduction

Background

One thing all of these blades have in common is that they are installed in a symmetric pattern. This means they are equally spaced around the center, or "balanced." There might be two blades directly across from one another or four blades that form an "X" and meet at right angles in the middle. There could even be an odd number of blades (for example, three blades evenly spaced would be at 120-degree angles to one another). Why is it important for the blades to be symmetric? Why don't you see windmills with just one blade or with two blades on the same side? This project will show you the best way to get the blades spinning!

Materials

• At least one pinwheel (that can be cut apart)
• Hair dryer
• Scissors
• Adult supervision

Preparation

• Gather all of your materials in an area where you can plug in and use the hair dryer. Have an adult operate the hair dryer about one meter away from where you will be standing with the pinwheel.

Procedure

• Turn on the hair dryer.
• Hold the pinwheel about a meter away from the hair dryer. Gradually move the pinwheel closer to the dryer until it begins spinning.
• Now, have an adult help you use scissors to cut off one blade from the pinwheel as close to the base as you can. This makes the pinwheel asymmetric because the remaining blades are no longer evenly spaced around the center.
• Again, hold the pinwheel about a meter in front of the hair dryer and gradually move it closer until it starts spinning.
• Use scissors to cut another blade off the pinwheel. Depending on how many blades your pinwheel had initially, you will have to make a decision about which blade to cut and whether the pinwheel remains asymmetric or becomes symmetric again. For example, suppose your pinwheel had four blades to start. When you cut off one blade, it has three unevenly spaced blades, so it is asymmetric. Now you can cut off a second blade next to the one you just cut off, so the pinwheel will still be asymmetric, with two unevenly spaced blades. Or you could cut off a second blade across from the one you just cut off. This will make the pinwheel symmetric again, with two blades directly across from one another. If you have more than one pinwheel, you can try different combinations.
• Hold in the pinwheel a meter in front of the hair dryer again and slowly move it closer.
• Repeat this process until your pinwheel only has one blade left.
• Extra: Use a ruler or measuring tape to record how far the pinwheel needs to be from the hair dryer to start spinning in each trial. Then you can make a graph of your results, with the distance from the dryer versus the number of blades.

Observations and results

More to exploreSpinning Your Wheels: Pinwheel Sensitivity, from Science BuddiesWind Turbine Design for Optimum Energy Output, from Strong Wind Science: The Power of a Pinwheel, from Wild Winds: Turbulent Flow around Structures, from Science Activities for All Ages!, from Science Buddies

Science Buddies

see also:

NASA Considers New Robotic Missions to Venus and Asteroids

This image of Venus is tinted blue to reveal variations in the clouds that surround the planet.

Venus and asteroids have emerged as top destinations for NASA's future planetary exploration. On September 30, the agency announced a short list of five contenders for its US$450-million Discovery-class of planetary missions.

Two of the five proposed missions would target Venus, which NASA  in more than two decades. A Venus radar orbiter would map the planet’s cloud-enshrouded surface from above, while an atmospheric probe would descend directly through the layers of haze. “They're pretty exciting choices and focus on a body that has not received much attention,” says Steven Hauck, a planetary scientist at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio.

Asteroid mission concepts include a telescope to hunt for ; a visit to the peculiarly metal-rich asteroid Psyche; and a tour of four Trojan asteroids, which orbit near Jupiter.

NASA will give each of the proposed missions $3 million to develop their ideas further, and by September 2016, the agency will select one—or possibly even two—to eventually fly. NASA officials have said they were impressed with the quality of the 27 proposals they received. If budgets permit, they may queue up two of the selected missions to fly as the next two Discovery missions rather than choose one and then put out another call for different ideas.

The selection capped months of anxious waiting for many US planetary scientists, who submitted their ideas in February. “It’s been an amazing day,” says Harold Levison, a planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado, who heads the Trojan asteroid proposal. “I got the call when I was driving to work,” he says. “I pulled over.”

Outward bound

Among the mission concepts that lost out were a spacecraft to whizz past erupting volcanoes on Jupiter’s moon Io, and one to analyze the chemistry of plumes spewing from Saturn’s moon Enceladus, which many consider a promising place for extraterrestrial life. Also left on the sidelines were several proposals to study comets, and three focusing on the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos.

Women lead four of the five shortlisted missions. Suzanne Smrekar, of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, heads the VERITAS mission that would map Venus at higher resolution and in different radar frequencies than NASA’s Magellan mission of the early 1990s. Lori Glaze, of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, is leading development of a probe that would descend through the atmosphere over about an hour, making measurements along the way.

Farther out in the Solar System, planetary scientist Lindy Elkins-Tanton heads the push to visit the metallic asteroid Psyche. Elkins-Tanton, of Arizona State University in Tempe, says Psyche represents a primordial not-quite-planet whose outer rocky layers have been stripped away to expose its metallic heart. “Psyche is the only core that humankind can ever see,” she says. “We’ve visited gassy things and rocky things and icy things, but we’ve never visited a metal object,” she says. Psyche would launch in 2020 for a 2026 arrival.

Rocky path

The asteroid mission NEOCam (for Near-Earth Object Camera) would use an infrared telescope to hunt for small and faint but potentially hazardous asteroids. Led by Amy Mainzer of JPL, it has been through the Discovery selection process twice before; NASA rejected the proposal in 2006 but gave Mainzer money in 2010 to develop the telescope's infrared detectors. “We really want to go find some asteroids and settle the question of whether one is heading our way,” Mainzer says.

Although Discovery missions are supposed to launch every couple of years, the current candidates are the first selected since 2010. Ongoing Discovery missions include the Dawn spacecraft, which is , and the Kepler telescope that . In March, NASA plans to launch its next Discovery spacecraft: InSight, which will place a seismometer on the surface of Mars to study the planet’s deep interior.

see also:

China and the U.S. Are Not the Biggest Carbon Emitters on a Per Person Basis

Per capita, the world's greatest carbon emitters are small countries -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

Big Trees First to Die in Severe Droughts

National forests whose names come from their large, majestic trees—such as Redwood National Park and Sequoia National Park in California—may need to rethink their brands as droughts increase in frequency and severity in many regions around the world due to climate change. New research published this week in the journal  finds it’s the large trees that suffer most and are first to die.

The four-person team of researchers conducted a global analysis of how forests respond to drought using already published and vetted inventory data from 40 drought events in 38 forests across the globe. In every case, large trees showed a decrease in how fast they grew, and drought-related tree death increased with tree size in 65 percent of the droughts examined.

“It shows us that this is really a pretty general trend,” said Kristina Anderson-Teixeira, a staff scientist with the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and senior author of the paper. “It tells us that biophysical principles make drought tougher on large trees.”

Physics and gravity are factors large trees have to deal with. Imagine trying to suck up water from a straw that is 5 feet tall versus a few inches, said Nathan McDowell, a researcher with the Earth and Environmental Sciences Division at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.

“Being tall, it’s harder to suck water,” said McDowell, a co-author of the paper. In fact, he said, big trees do a lot for a forest ecosystem that their smaller counterparts cannot. Some species, such as the spotted owl, only live in big trees. Large trees provide shade for the forest ecosystem and keep the understory of forests cool and more humid.

Big trees also capture a disproportionate amount of carbon dioxide, making them potential boons in the battle against a changing climate. The authors found that when trees are exposed to drought, not only are climate-stressed trees less likely to take in as much carbon, but when they die, they release large amounts of stored carbon into the atmosphere.

“Plants can’t go to the local 7-Eleven and get something to drink—they’re stuck there,” he said. “The way they deal with dry conditions [is] they close their stomata, holes in leaves that allow water to escape and capture CO₂.”

25M trees dead in Calif.

This week, officials in California reported that the number of dead trees in California has soared to 25 million, the result of drought and diseases exacerbated by lack of water (, Sept. 28). At least 12 million trees in the state have been killed as bark beetles take advantage of their weakened state. Bark beetles also prefer large trees, the study notes.

William Anderegg, a postdoctoral fellow at the Princeton Environmental Institute who was not associated with the research, said the paper presented nice preliminary data on how larger trees seem more vulnerable to drought.

“Understanding which trees in the forest are most vulnerable to drought is quite important for understanding whether [they will] continue to act as a strong carbon sink in a rapidly changing climate,” he said in an email.

Anderegg’s own work, including a  published in July in the journal , found that forests absorb less carbon for four years after a drought.

He added that the paper was valuable but represents a small sample size, and that more work is needed.

McDowell said the paper adds to a growing body of science that is fueling concern for old, large trees. Although some forest management strategies could be helpful, such as forest thinning and controlled burning in appropriate places, those are merely bandages, he said.

“Do we predict all trees are going to die? Maybe it’s 80 percent,” he said. “The bottom line is we can’t just limit CO₂ emissions. We have to stop carbon emissions totally. It’s good our governments are making progress, but it’s just a drop in the bucket.”

Amy Bennett with the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute and the University of New Mexico and Craig Allen from the U.S. Geological Survey were also authors of the .

www.eenews.net

see also:

China and America Are Not the Biggest Carbon Emitters on a Per Person Basis

Per capita, the world's greatest carbon emitters are small countries -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

CO2 Emissions Shrink, in a Few Cases

A handful of countries are actually lowering their emissions per person

By | |

The world is hurtling toward greater global warming, thanks to ever-increasing CO₂ emissions. Although the U.S. and China emit much more CO₂ than other countries do, it is surprising to learn that some very small countries have the highest emissions rates per person (see our graph, ). It is also surprising to learn, however, that a handful of countries have actually lowered their per capita emissions. The plots below reveal these interesting places (blue dots).

Click the graphic to see the full, expanded version.

SOURCE: WORLD RESOURCE'S INSTITUTE'S CAIT CLIMATE DATA EXPLORER HTTP://CAT2.WRI.ORG Scientific American

see also:

Cancer Immunotherapy: The Cutting Edge Gets Sharper

Artificially boosting the body's immune response against cancer is the most exciting advance in the treatment of tumors in the past couple of years. But as the jam-packed sessions at a recent scientific conference in New York City made clear, a lot of questions remain to be answered before anyone can declare victory in the war on cancer. Among them: What is the best way to ? Will immunotherapy work for all sorts of people with all kinds of cancer or just for a ? Is there a way to make the treatments less dangerous or expensive?

It was standing room only for many of the presentations at the first , which took place from September 16 to 19.* Speaker after speaker started their talks by disclosing financial ties to a variety of companies ranging from pharmaceutical giants to their own start-ups. The audience consisted primarily of scientists and physicians. But sprinkled among the 1,400 attendees, in addition to the usual smattering of journalists, were a number of industry scouts and finance people seeking to glean the next big investment opportunity or joint project possibility.

Jill O'Donnell-Tormey, chief executive officer of the Cancer Research Institute, proclaimed 2015 "a truly special year for cancer immunotherapy." The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved two new immunotherapy drugs, she noted, "more than half of the current cancer clinical trials include some form of immunotherapy," several groups are working on possible combination therapies and oncologists around the world are recognizing "a paradigm shift in cancer." But as exciting as these advances are, she continued, "we know that we are only at the beginning" in terms of being able to understand or broadly use them.

Reality check

The first thing you need to know about the researchers studying immunotherapy for cancer is that every one of them seemingly has a few patients who have responded extraordinarily well. Steven Rosenberg of the National Cancer Institute no doubt takes the prize in this category. In 1984, he treated a woman named who had metastatic melanoma (an aggressive type of with a survival rate of less than 10 percent after ten years). Taylor was the 81st patient to undergo the debilitating therapy and the first to respond successfully. Within a few months her tumors melted away and she remains alive and healthy today. Rosenberg—the keynote speaker at the conference—reports that his latest regimen is not as hard on patients and results in 20 percent of them experiencing "a complete and durable remission." That's about par for a lot of the immune therapies now being studied.

The second thing you need to know is that there is a reason why the body works so hard to suppress its immune reactions most of the time. The immune system has such powerful weapons in its arsenal that it can kill you faster than whatever ails you. And some of the things that doctors do to prepare the body for immune treatment are just as toxic as chemotherapy and radiation. (Indeed, for complex reasons, some immunotherapies require a dose of chemotherapy or radiation as a first step.) As Rosenberg says, "We have had some treatment-related deaths. That's been true in the field as well as in our own experience."

With those sobering caveats in mind, however, there is no mistaking the growing optimism among many cancer researchers. They are starting to figure out when it's more important to take the brakes off the body's immune responses, when to step on the accelerator to get a sluggish reaction into high gear—and when they can safely do both. As investigators study different combinations of treatments and dosages, they can see improvements in response rates and believe they are getting a better handle on some of the most severe side effects.

Hot and cold tumors

Investigators have developed several different methods for tweaking a patient's immune system so that it recognizes and attacks dangerous tumors more effectively than it otherwise would. Some of these therapies feature so-called monoclonal antibodies that interfere with cancer cells' ability to fool the immune system into ignoring them. Known as , these treatments so far appear to work best in melanoma and smoking-induced lung cancer.

There are good biological reasons for that observation. Melanoma and smoker's lung cancer both occur as a result of environmental exposure—the former from the sun’s ultraviolet rays, the latter from carcinogens in tobacco smoke. As a result, lots of mutations occur in the DNA of affected cells. These mutations in turn lead to the production of many aberrant proteins, which are usually recognized by the immune system as potentially dangerous, and any cells that contain them are quickly marked for destruction.

Researchers refer to these malignancies as "hot" tumors because they sport a lot of deviant proteins that the immune system is likely to notice. They need a long time to figure out how to shield themselves from the immune system—which is part of the reason it typically takes decades for melanomas and lung cancers to grow big enough to threaten someone's life.

In these cases the immune system has already dispatched lots of immune cells to the tumor; it's just that the cancer manages to turn the defenders off whenever they arrive. Checkpoint blockade reawakens the immune cells that have already found their way inside the tumor to start killing the malignant cells in the immediate vicinity and anywhere else they may be found in the body.

Intriguingly, combining checkpoint blockade drugs results in fewer extreme side effects for patients with melanoma than for those with lung cancer. "This is something that is very recently being recognized—maybe in the past two years," says Jedd Wolchok, an oncologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York City. "The same doses of the same medicine may not be tolerated equally in patients who have different cancers. We may have to use less medicine in patients with lung cancer. [Immunotherapy] is not one size fits all."

In any event, many kinds of cancer (such as prostate, ovarian and pancreatic) are caused by just a handful of genetic mutations. They do not create the wide range of malfunctioning proteins that would usually attract the immune system's attention. As a result, these tumors are not typically filled with lots of slumbering immune cells waiting to be reawakened; checkpoint blockade, therefore, usually doesn't work on them. They are, in the parlance of cancer immunologists, "cold" tumors.

And yet, several investigators reported on efforts to turn such cold tumors hot so they could then be targeted with immunotherapy. Padmanee Sharma, an immunologist at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, for example, described a in which men with apparently aggressive prostate cancer were given hormone treatment prior to surgery in order to first kill a few of their cancer cells before their tumor is removed. Once these cells die, the various proteins and other compounds that are usually found inside them spill into the body. Somehow, this makes it easier for the immune system to pay attention and it starts sending immune cells to tackle whatever microscopic bits of tumor might be left elsewhere in the body after the operation. Unfortunately, as Sharma told the audience, their subsequent response to immune-boosting drugs was short-lived. She and her colleagues are pursuing several different ideas, however, to make it last longer.

Finding the right balance

Indeed, the idea that you don't have to kill all the cancer cells in a tumor to get the immune system going sparked a lot of interest at the conference. Ira Mellman, Genentech’s vice president of cancer immunology, wondered aloud whether "chemotherapy may in fact be, to some extent, immunotherapy." By killing a few cells, it may prime the immune system to respond better to later treatments. In some cases the release of cancer proteins jump-starts the immune response. In others a chemotherapy drug such as gemcitabine actually releases the brakes by temporarily .

Stanford University oncologist Ron Levy has taken this concept one step further by using low-dose radiation treatment to kill a few malignant cells in who had several visible tumors. Then he injected an experimental immunostimulatory compound directly into a single lesion in each of these patients. By doing so, he found he could lower the amount of drug he needed to trigger a reaction. Acting on a single tumor—which doesn't require as much medicine as trying to reach all the tumors in the body—was sufficient to trigger a general immune response.

Most of the patients in exhibited some kind of response; even tumors that had not been treated started to shrink in a few people. Generally speaking, it took six months to two years to see the changes. One 38-year-old man experienced a complete response, meaning all observable signs of the cancer disappeared throughout the body—an outcome that lasted more than a year. (A "complete response" is not necessarily the same thing as a cure because undetectable amounts of cancer might still be lurking somewhere in the body.) "We're trying to make this response more common and more durable," Levy said. His next step is to try to combine this method for stimulating the immune system with monoclonal antibodies that prevent tumors from shutting the immune system down (given at 1/20th of the usual dose). "We hope to eliminate toxicity by going local and lowering the effective dose," he told meeting participants. Although Levy has started treating at least one person with this newer combo approach, he was not yet ready to share results.

Investigators presented several other promising immunotherapies at the conference but no roundup would be complete without mentioning the so-called , many of which have received orphan drug or  "breakthrough status" by the FDA in the past 18 months.

CAR T cells are immune cells that have been genetically engineered to target tumors in a much more powerful way than normal immune cells can. To date, clinical trials conducted at Memorial Sloan Kettering, the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine have demonstrated remission rates of about 90 percent in several advanced cancers of the blood and lymph systems (again, not necessarily the same as a cure but still astounding).

"There are 300 kinds of cancer at least and they're each going to have different issues," says Carl June of the University of Pennsylvania. But, he adds, "I think we have enough tools that we can plot a course." Stay tuned.

see also:

DARPA's Dancing Robot

Spot, DARPA's four-legged robotic pack mule, shows off nimbler moves and a quieter drive system than its predecessor. -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com