Hurricane Joaquin Intensifies but U.S. Landfall Not Certain

By Neil Hartnell

NASSAU, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Hurricane Joaquin strengthened as it battered the Bahamas with torrential rains, storm surges and heavy winds on Thursday and U.S. officials raced to prepare for possible landfall early next week, three years after Superstorm Sandy devastated New York and New Jersey.

Joaquin, the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season, intensified into a major Category 4 storm on a scale of 1 to 5, with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles (209 km) per hour, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

U.S. energy installations in the Gulf of Mexico were unaffected by the storm.

While forecasts of the storm's trajectory were still uncertain, Joaquin was the first tropical cyclone to potentially threaten the U.S. northeast since Sandy.

Several computer models showed Joaquin approaching the coast of the Carolinas by the weekend, then losing strength as it moves offshore past Delaware and New Jersey early next week to head toward Long Island and New England.

One often reliable European model indicated the storm may cut a path out to sea, but the governors of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey - where Sandy killed more than 120 people and caused some $70 billion in property damage in October 2012 - warned residents to prepare for a possible severe storm.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie declared a state of emergency on Thursday, adding he would consider ordering evacuations. The governors of Virginia and North Carolina have also declared states of emergency.

"We're hoping for the best, but hope is not preparation nor is it a plan," North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory said in a statement on Thursday.

"I've ordered all state agencies to begin preparation for the severe weather, particularly flooding, that is going hit just about every corner of the state during the next few days."

One person died after several cars were submerged in flash floods in South Carolina, local media reported on Thursday.

Some additional strengthening of Joaquin was possible over the next day, as it approaches parts of the central and northwest Bahamas, the Miami-based NHC said.

The storm's eye was passing over uninhabited Samana Cay Thursday, moving southwest at 6 mph (9 kph) and threatening resorts on the smaller islands of San Salvador, Exuma and Cat Island.

Joaquin's hurricane-force winds were forecast to miss the larger Bahamas islands and the main cities and cruise ship ports of Freeport and Nassau.

Storm surges will push water as high as 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas, the NHC said, with up to 20 inches (51 cm) of rain possible in some areas.

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Joaquin's projected path http://reut.rs/1LPAAhG

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Residents on the Bahamas islands closest to Joaquin's path, which include Rum Cay, Long Island, Exuma and Eleuthera, had stocked up on food and drink, and were boarding up homes and businesses.

In North Carolina's vulnerable Outer Banks, a strip of barrier islands linked by road, some vacationers decided to pack up early and leave before the weekend.

"Everybody is taking this one a little more seriously because of the rain we have had," said Hyde County commissioner John Fletcher on Ocracoke Island, noting heavy rain had saturated the area in recent days.

U.S. energy companies said they had learned from Sandy and used the last three years to gird their oil, natural gas and power infrastructure to better withstand another storm.

Consolidated Edison Inc, which supplies power, gas and steam to more than three million customers in the New York City area, said it was three years into a four-year $2 billion plan to strengthen its infrastructure after Sandy shut down the Big Apple.

Sandy, the worst storm in Con Edison's history, left about a million customers without power, with outages lasting a couple of weeks in the hardest hit areas. Some customers of other utilities were without power for much longer.

The U.S. East Coast has nine refineries with an operable capacity of about 1.3 million barrels per day, according to government data. (Reporting by David Adams in Miami, Gene Cherry in Hatteras Island, N.C. and Daniel Bases and Scott DiSavino in New York; Writing by Tom Brown; Editing by Bernadette BaumJames Dalgleish)

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Tar Sands Mining Moves to Utah

The Canadian tar sands, or oil sands, are much more carbon-laden than most other fossil fuels produced in North America, and their possible outsized impact on the climate is one of the primary reasons the proposed Pipeline, which would carry tar sands oil to Texas refineries, is so controversial.

Despite long odds as oil prices continue their dip below $50 per barrel, commercial  mining is coming for the first time to the U.S., where an Alberta company called  has begun producing tar sands from a mine in eastern Utah.

Up to 76 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil may be locked up in deposits of thick clay-like and hydrocarbon-laced beneath the state’s redrock canyon country, according to University of Utah estimates. (The Canadian oil industry refers to the sticky bitumen as “,” but in the U.S., the federal government  “,” a name the Canadian industry  because it is used by its critics.)

Oil price volatility makes tar sands development in Utah—the  in the U.S. with large deposits of it—uncertain. But if successful, it will be a historic moment in the history of oil and gas production in the U.S.

“There have been numerous attempts to develop the oil sands resource in Uintah County, Utah, over the past eight decades,” , a research associate professor for the Institute for Clean and Secure Energy at the University of Utah, said. “While the oil sands have been exploited commercially for use as a paving material, no company has ever produced bitumen at a commercial scale.”

If the industry does gain a foothold in the U.S., the climate implications could be significant.

In evaluating the climate impacts of Keystone XL, the U.S. State Department concluded that Canadian tar sands production is 17 percent more carbon intensive than production of an average barrel of oil. In June, a group of 100 scientists called for  on tar sands development, saying it is incompatible with stabilizing the climate and meeting greenhouse gas reductions targets.

But U.S. Oil Sands, which did not respond to requests for comment, is moving ahead with production, even as tar sands producers in Canada  as crude oil prices fall.

U.S. Oil Sands, which has acquired the rights to produce tar sands at mines on 50 square miles of land between Salt Lake City and Moab, Utah, plans to produce 2,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of the year, according to  the company filed with Canadian .

Click to enlarge.

“This is a breakthrough in technology,” U.S. Oil Sands CEO  told the . “If we’re able to demonstrate to the investment world that this is possible, there are many, many places where this could be done.”

The economic winds are blowing hard against the company, however.

Spinti’s 2013 economic assessment for Utah tar sands development shows that any mine producing 50,000 barrels per day would be unprofitable even when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are above $100 per barrel. On Thursday, the WTI price was .  

“I expect that all oil sands operations, both in the U.S. and Canada, will find the economic climate to be very difficult in the near term,” Spinti said.

Other challenges facing future tar sands development in Utah include climate policy, environmental regulations, complications with land ownership and the remoteness of some of the tar sands deposits, she said.

A tar sands seep at a Utah tar sands mine.

“Some of the federal lands containing oil sands resources are located in national parks, national monuments, wilderness and wilderness study areas, so those areas would not be developable,” Spinti said. “However, the state has shown significant interest in developing the oil sands resources on its lands and there are private landowners interested in development as well.”

From a climate perspective, any kind of tar sands development in the U.S. would present a threat to the globe’s ability to meet climate goals, said , a professor of resources and environmental policy at University College London.

Ekins published  in the journal Nature in January showing that most Canadian tar sands would have to be left in the ground in order for the globe to cost-effectively keep global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

“The world is awash with fossil fuels so if we are to get a handle on climate change, any new production of hydrocarbons will have to be balanced by reduced production elsewhere,” Ekins said. “Those who wish to produce U.S. oil sands should therefore be asked which fossil fuel production elsewhere they will substitute for.”

Climate Central. The article was

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As Joaquin Looms, Eastern U.S. States Start to Batten Down

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, Oct 1 (Reuters) - As Joaquin strengthened into a major Category 4 hurricane near the Bahamas on Thursday, states along the U.S. East Coast hustled to activate emergency plans developed after Superstorm Sandy slammed the region in 2012, aiming to blunt the storm's potential impact.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, whose state took a direct hit from Sandy, declared a state of emergency, warning residents to "be prepared but don't panic."

The governor of North Carolina made a similar announcement, a day after Virginia declared a state of emergency.

"The weather reports are not encouraging," Christie told a press conference, adding he would consider ordering evacuations if necessary. Forecasters are still uncertain of the likely track of the hurricane and where it might make landfall.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters the Federal Emergency Management Agency had increased staffing at its 24-hour National Watch Center in Washington, D.C. and has teams deployed or preparing to deploy to potentially affected areas.

Sandy was directly responsible for at least 147 deaths in the United States, according to the National Hurricane Center, the second-deadliest hurricane outside of the southern states since Agnes in 1972. More than 650,000 homes were damaged or destroyed when it made landfall on Oct. 29, 2012, devastating parts of New Jersey, New York and other states and leaving roughly 8.5 million customers without power. Damage costs totaled nearly $50 billion.

Christie said he had ordered stockpiling of 20 days of commodities instead of the normal five days and said "slosh modeling" is being done, referring to how deeply a storm surge might penetrate low-lying coastal areas.

Sand dune barriers have been built along many, but not all, beaches in New Jersey, Christie noted.

In Alexandria, Virginia, which sits in a floodplain along the Potomac River, Old Town Ace Hardware by noon on Thursday had sold out of HydraBarrier bags and sand bags, assistant store manager Mark Tantillo said.

The store was also selling a lot of PVC drainpipe extensions to direct runoff away from properties. Customers complained the city was not doing enough to protect homes, Tantillo said.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state's emergency operation center in Albany opened on Thursday and those in New York City and Long Island will be running by the weekend.

"New York is in a much better position today than we have ever been before, but when it comes to Mother Nature, you can never be too prepared," Cuomo said in a statement.

New York's National Guard mobilized 200 troops to help identify problem areas for debris removal and has plans for an additional 3,000 if needed.

In places along New Jersey's shore, damage caused by Sandy has still not been repaired while thousands of homeowners have either been denied full insurance claims or still not been able to access funds to rebuild.

PREPARE, PREPARE, PREPARE

The consistent message from leaders, at state and local level, was to give citizens fair warning to prepare by going to their websites to review supply lists and action plans.

"We're hoping for the best, but hope is not preparation nor is it a plan," North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory said from his already rain-soaked state.

Supplies of water and batteries have started to run low in states expected to be affected first by rain and then possibly Joaquin.

Sea wall gates were closed in Ocean City, Maryland while in Norfolk, Virginia, Mayor Paul Fraim declared a state of emergency after the state did the same. The port city suspended street sweeping and refuse collection because of the storm.

The first punch of bad weather coming in the form of heavy rainfall will first swell lakes and rivers on Thursday and Friday while the full force of Joaquin will move from the Bahamas up toward the coast of the Carolinas at the weekend.

It is the storm surge coming after saturation of ground and swelling of lakes and rivers that has officials concerned.

Weather models now show that Joaquin, the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season, could lose strength as it moves north offshore Delaware and New Jersey early next week and then heads towards Long Island and New England.

The U.S. Navy has ordered its ships in the Hampton Roads, Virginia, area, home to the Atlantic fleet, to be ready to get under way within 48 hours because of Joaquin's approach.

Virginia Beach, Virginia, was already dealing with a separate weather system expected to dump heavy rain on the resort town ahead of the hurricane's possible arrival.

"Crews are cleaning storm drains and securing tables, garbage cans and beach furniture so they don't become flying objects that can hurt people or damage property," Deputy City Manager Dave Hansen said in a statement. (Additional reporting by Ian Simpson and John Clarke in Washington, Katie Reilly in New York, Neil Hartnell in Nassau, Bahamas, Victoria Cavaliere in Los Angeles, Gene Cherry in Hatteras Island, N.C. and Colleen Jenkins in Winston-Salem, N.C.; Editing by Frank McGurty and James Dalgleish)

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Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect More than 65 Million from Carolinas to Mass.

Flooding from  will impact areas from South Carolina to Massachusetts regardless of whether it makes landfall or if the center stays out to sea.

People should not let their guard down due to a shifting track of the hurricane as the risk to lives and property in this complex situation remains high.

A copious amount of moisture will unload very heavy rainfall along parts of the Atlantic Seaboard and the Appalachians into early next week. Strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur and could be very damaging even in the absence of a landfall.

Hurricane Joaquin strengthened rapidly Wednesday into Thursday. Joaquin reached Category 3 status late Wednesday evening and Category 4 status on Thursday afternoon.

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The storm will bring pounding surf, dangerous seas, strong winds, drenching squalls and flash flooding to the central Bahamas. Wind gusts could reach between 75 and 100 mph on some of the islands.

As a result, Joaquin will threaten lives and property in the Bahamas into Friday. Bahamasair has canceled flights for Thursday in parts of the islands.

Joaquin will turn to the north this weekend.

Governors in Virginia, New Jersey and North Carolina have issued a State of Emergency. Other states may follow suit.

Joaquin Track Scenarios

Joaquin has strengthened significantly and continues to hover near the Bahamas on Thursday. This delay has altered the forecast track. Other weather systems impacting Joaquin will be in slightly different positions as a result.

Joaquin will move northward much of this weekend, roughly paralleling the East coast. There is nearly equal possibility the storm will make landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast, the New England coast or veer out to sea.

Due to the potential close proximity of the hurricane to the coast, people from the Carolinas to Massachusetts will need to closely monitor the track and strength of Joaquin for high wind and coastal flooding concerns.

Should Joaquin make landfall, areas near and north of the center would face the worst coastal flooding and strong winds.

If the storm were to make landfall in North Carolina, then it would be on Sunday. If the storm were to turn into Virginia, then it would be on Sunday night. From the Delmarva Peninsula to New Jersey, a landfall would not occur until Monday.

If Joaquin fails to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic and does not escape out to sea, then New England could face the brunt of the storm with deteriorating conditions early next week.

Inland Flooding

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, a large arm of heavy rain from the Atlantic will pivot westward and southward into the weekend.

"The worst flooding will be where it rains the longest or the near the pivot point," Abrams said. "That point is likely to be centered on the Carolinas and Virginia this weekend."

For this reason, people should not focus on only the projected path of Joaquin but also on the projected heavy rainfall hundreds of miles away from the storm's center.

Power outages could occur in addition to flooding as substations get flooded and waterlogged trees topple over.

Through Sunday, the rounds of heavy rain will likely be of shorter duration in the northern mid-Atlantic and could be very brief in New England.

If the area from Maryland to Massachusetts gets long-lasting rain from Joaquin, it is most likely to be early next week. Any inland flooding prior to this time will be limited to urban areas and along small streams.

Farther south from Virginia to the Carolinas, the threat for widespread flash flooding will increase, along with the potential for river flooding.

Rivers that bear close watching for flooding include the New, Tar, Meherrin, Savannah, Shenandoah and James.

Coastal Flooding, Strong Winds

Onshore winds from the east and northeast will push the Atlantic Ocean water toward the coast, causing it to pile up around the barrier islands and bays. This is known as coastal flooding.

Winds, seas and tide levels will continue to build from the Carolinas to Massachusetts through the weekend.

East to northeast gusts may frequent 40 mph well ahead of Joaquin's approach.

The onshore winds alone, in absence of Joaquin reaching the coast, could cause water levels to rise to an average of 2-3 feet above normal tides. These conditions are likely to occur hundreds of miles to the north of the storm's center.

Winds could become strong enough to down trees and power lines and cause minor property damage.

Much more severe winds, waves and coastal flooding would occur if landfall occurs, near and north of the center.

Those in the projected path of the storm should be preparing for the potential rain and wind from Joaquin. Residents in coastal areas should be ready to evacuate if orders are given.

original story here

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How Will Joaquin Compare with Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Isabel?

For the number of people now living along the mid-Atlantic coast that did not experience Sandy or Isabel, this storm could deliver rough weather. In both Sandy and Isabel, gusty winds and flooding occurred well away from the center of the storms.

Questions have been raised about the similarity to  with other recent hurricane strikes in the mid-Atlantic states.

"There is going to be catastrophic flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts, and this is going to disrupt the economy regardless of whether or not Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall," Mike Smith, senior vice president and chief innovation executive of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions said.

No matter how similar the pattern may seem, no two storms are ever exactly alike. The same can be said about the situation developing this weekend along the Atlantic coast with the approach of Joaquin.

A slightly different storm track and the position of other weather systems nearby can translate to huge differences in the weather that occurs at a particular location. The angle and strength of the storm's approach compared to geography and whether or not the storm is strengthening or weaken at landfall can be huge factors in the severity of the weather that occurs.

Joaquin and other weather systems will deliver beach erosion, coastal flooding, inland flooding from heavy rain and stiff winds near the coast, prior to its arrival more than 100 miles away from the point of any landfall.

Exactly where Joaquin comes ashore and how strong it is at landfall will determine the severity of the conditions from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, the New York City area, Cape Cod, and as far inland as Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia.

For the number of people now living along the mid-Atlantic coast that did not experience Sandy or Isabel, this storm could deliver rough weather. In both Sandy and Isabel, gusty winds and flooding occurred well away from the center of the storms.

Superstorm Sandy

Areas from coastal central New Jersey to Long Island and the New York City area, which were located just north of Sandy's landfall, experienced the worst coastal flooding and damaging winds.

High pressure to the north helped to funnel winds in from the east and direct Sandy westward. The shape of the coast of northern New Jersey and Long Island helped to funnel the Atlantic Ocean water.

Sandy was the second costliest hurricane in United States history with damage at $75 billion. More than 200 people lost their lives from the Caribbean through the U.S.

Hurricane Isabel

This path flung the strongest winds over the Chesapeake Bay region. In addition to heavy rain, Atlantic Ocean and bay waters were funneled up the Chesapeake Bay, which resulted in substantial damage. The increasing forward speed of Isabel helped to maintain strong wind gusts well inland.

Isabel resulted in approximately 16 direct fatalities, more than 30 indirect deaths and caused $5.4 billion in damage.

Prepare Now Regardless of Similarities, Differences

While there will be no Tropical Storm Henri arriving ahead of Joaquin, unlike in 2003, there has been heavy rainfall prior to Joaquin this time.

The impact from Joaquin, assuming it makes landfall, could be similar to either Sandy or Isabel or perhaps a blend of the two. There will be impacts. This includes the potential for flooding, downed trees, property damage and power outages. Areas from northeastern North Carolina to New York City, including the Delaware and Chesapeake bay regions will especially monitor Joaquin's track and intensity through this weekend.

In terms of loss of life or injury, be sure to heed warnings and orders as soon as they are issued. Protect property by moving items out of harms way to higher floors or a safe location inland, ahead of the storm. People along the mid-Atlantic coast have several days to prepare for Joaquin, should it make landfall in their vicinity.

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MacArthur Genius Grant Winner Probes the Pruning Brain

Harvard neuroscientist Beth Stevens wins a MacArthur Fellowship for studies of how microglia cells prune away excess neuronal synapses during brain development and how that necessary function might go awry in neurodegenerative diseases.

By | |

“They’re like the Pac-Man of our brain.”

, talking about , which make up more than half . This week Stevens got a MacArthur Fellowship, the so-called genius grant, for her studies of glia. 

“These cells are incredibly responsive to damage or injury. They can protect our brain by, for example, clearing bacteria or debris in the brain in the case of injury and disease…

“Until about 10 years ago, almost all of the research devoted to these cells was in these contexts. We discovered that there was another role for these cells in the normal healthy brain, in particular during development…

“So a synapse is the junction of communication between two neurons, it’s how neurons talk to each other…we’re actually born with an excess of synaptic connections…and through this normal developmental process called pruning, a large number of these extra synapses get permanently removed or eliminated while others get strengthened and maintained. These microglial cells were in fact engulfing or eating these extra synapses. So these cells are necessary to do this and now of course we’re trying to better understand how it is that they know which synapse to prune and which synapse to leave alone.

“A hallmark of many neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease, is the early loss of synaptic connections or synapses…And what’s most striking about this is, it’s thought that the synapse loss happens years before you see signs of cognitive impairment or pathology.

“That means it’s critical that we understand how these synapses are lost—what makes synapses vulnerable. And that’s a major question my lab is addressing. So recent work in the lab suggests that these normal pruning mechanisms that I’ve just described that are relevant to development get reactivated to drive or mediate this early synapse loss in the adult brain in these diseases. This is very exciting because it allows us to think about the potential that intervening with this pruning pathway could lead to new insight into therapeutics.”

For the complete list of this year’s 24 MacArthur Fellows, including about 10 science and medicine people depending on how you define their activities, go to , for MacArthur Foundation.

—Steve Mirsky

Stevens audio via MacArthur Foundation

Eye of Hurricane Joaquin Passing over Bahamas

The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is passing over Samana Cay in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory on Thursday

October 1, 2015

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Major Hurricane Joaquin is shown at the far eastern periphery of the GOES West satellite's full disk extent, taken at 8 a.m. (EDT) on October 1, 2015.

(Reuters) - The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is passing over Samana Cay in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory on Thursday.

The hurricane is located about 80 miles (125 km) south southeast of San Salvador, Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour (205 km/h), the agency said.

"A turn towards the northwest and north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion towards the north is expected Friday night and Saturday," the Miami-based weather forecaster said.

(Reporting by Vijaykumar Vedala in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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